Tracking the Tokyo Effect

By Ben Burns - Pregame.com contributor

This Saturday at 5 am Eastern time, the NFL preseason kicks off with the American Bowl. The game will be played at Tokyo and will feature the Atlanta Falcons vs. the Indianapolis Colts. It will mark the 14th time that the NFL has played a preseason game in Japan.

I began studying the history of the "Japan games" to see if I could gain any valuable tidbits of information to use for handicapping the Colts/Falcons game. After settling on my pick for next week's game, I decided to take my research a step further. I wanted to see if I could learn anything about the "Tokyo Effect" which might prove useful over the next month of the preseason and possibly throughout the course of the season.

I started by tracking how the teams which had travelled to Japan recently had fared in the preseason immediately after returning home. Having travelled to Asia a number of times myself, and recognizing the effect of jet-lag, I hypothesized that teams might struggle right after coming home. That wasn't really the case though. Overall, the six teams that visited Asia this millennium combined to go 13-10 SU and 10-11-2 ATS upon their return. It appears that the extra game played in Japan compensates for the travel-time.

Preseason Records Since 2000 After Japan Game:
- Bucs 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
- Jets 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
- Redskins 3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS
- 49'ers 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
- Falcons 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS
- Cowboys 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS
TOTALS 13-10 SU, 10-11-2 ATS

Next, I got thinking about the most recent Japan game back in 2003 and remembered that Jon Gruden and the defending World Champion Bucs weren't too keen on making the trip across the Pacific. I also remembered that Tampa Bay stumbled the following year. I wasn't sure if the trip to Japan had anything to do with the Bucs' problems so I checked to see if the other teams which had previously travelled to Japan had also gone downhill the season after taking a trip to the Orient.

Naturally, when playing on an International stage, the NFL likes to showcase its marquis clubs and players. This year's participants are a perfect example. Both the Falcons and Colts are coming off winning seasons. The fact that each team features a superstar quarterback doesn't hurt either. I added up the records of the 26 teams the year before they travelled to Japan. Like the Colts and Falcons the majority of the teams had winning records. Their total win/loss tally came to 260-152. That translates to a 10-5.8 record per season. I did the same thing for the year after they went to Japan. The teams still had a winning record of 224-188 but there was an obvious drop-off. That translates to an individual season record of 8.6-7.2. It's also worth noting that 21 of the 26 teams went to the playoffs the year before they travelled to Japan but only 11 of the 26 teams made it to the playoffs the season that they made the trip. Looking at recent history, we find that only one of the six teams that has travelled to Japan this millennium went on to make the playoffs the year of their trip.

So, what does this mean? Will the Colts and Falcons stumble and miss the playoffs this year? Not necessarily! The Colts (+350) are one of the co-favorites to win the AFC while the Falcons have the second lowest odds (+700) behind the defending conference champion Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC. I do, however, feel that there is likely more to the "Tokyo Effect" than just pure coincidence. Teams try to develop rhythm during the preseason and taking a trip across the globe seems to affect that rhythm-building process. Therefore, I'll be looking for opportunities throughout the regular season to fade both these "public" teams. Atlanta has a challenging early schedule and might be particularly susceptible to experiencing a "Japanese hangover". All seven of the Falcons' opponents, prior to the bye in Week 8, had records of 500 or better last year. Those teams finished with a combined record of 71-41.

The following chart recaps the NFL's 13-game series of preseason games in Japan. I've included the scores of each of the games, the records of the teams prior to travelling to Japan, and the records of the teams the year after they played in Japan. Note that all of the games were played at Tokyo except the 2002 game which was played at Osaka.

Year	Teams / Final Score	Previous Season	Current Season
2003	TB: 30, NYJ: 14	TB: 12-4, NYJ: 9-7	TB: 7-9, NYJ: 6-10
2002	WAS: 38, SF: 7	WAS: 8-8, SF: 12-4	WAS: 7-9, SF: 10-6
2000	ATL: 20, DAL: 9	ATL: 5-11, DAL: 8-8	ATL: 4-12, DAL: 5-11
1998	GB: 27, KC: 24 (OT)	GB: 13-3, KC: 13-3	GB: 11-5, KC: 7-9
1996	SD: 20, PIT: 10	SD: 9-7, PIT: 11-5	SD: 8-8, PIT: 10-6
1995	DEN: 24, SF: 10	DEN: 7-9, SF: 13-3	DEN: 8-8, SF: 11-5
1994	MIN: 17, KC: 9	MIN: 9-7, KC: 11-5	MIN: 10-6, KC: 9-7
1993	NO: 28, PHI: 16	NO: 12-4, PHI: 11-5	NO: 8-8, PHI: 8-8
1992	HOU: 34, DAL: 23	HOU: 11-5, DAL: 11-5	HOU: 10-6, DAL: 13-3
1991	MIA: 19, RAI: 17	MIA: 12-4, RAI: 12-4	MIA: 8-8, RAI: 9-7
1990	DEN: 10, SEA: 7	DEN: 11-5, SEA: 7-9	DEN: 5-11, SEA: 9-7
1998	RAM: 16, SF: 13	RAM: 10-6, SF: 10-6	RAM: 11-5, SF: 14-2
1976	STL: 20, SD: 10	STL: 11-3, SD: 2-12	STL: 10-4, SD: 6-8

** Previous Season refers to record of the season played prior to playing in Japan, while Current Season refers to the record of the season when playing in Japan.

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You can visit Ben Burns online at www.BenBurns.com