NFL Football Futures Forecast:
AFC South

By Matty O'Shea - matty@pregame.com
Pregame.com GM of Content

Overview: If it weren’t for the New England Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts (13-5 Straight-Up in 2004, 10-7-1 Against The Spread) would have probably represented the AFC in the last two Super Bowls. The Colts scored more points than any team in the NFL last year but have yet to play any kind of playoff-caliber defense when it matters most. Only the injury-plagued Tennessee Titans (5-11 SU and ATS) gave up more points in the AFC South in 2004, and Indy’s defense must improve if they are to take the next step and advance to the NFL championship game. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS) and Houston Texans (7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) proved to be very competitive in 2004 despite finishing well behind the Colts in the standings and will look to build on last year’s success. Injuries killed the Titans last year, as they are coming off their worst record in 10 years after 11 starters missed playing time, including 2003 co-MVP Steve McNair.

Most Over-priced: Indianapolis Colts at 1/3 to win the division and O/U 11.5 wins.

The Colts will most likely win the AFC South and are again one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but keep an eye on their lines throughout the year and proceed with caution. With MVP quarterback Peyton Manning coming off a record-breaking 49 touchdowns in 2004 and the public taking serious notice, watch for oddsmakers to skew the odds a point or two more in their favor (depending on their opponent obviously). The Colts were favored by more than a touchdown in 10 games last year and finished an impressive 7-3 ATS, but that will be hard to duplicate in 2005.

Most Under-priced: Tennessee Titans at 12/1 to win the division and O/U 6.5 wins

The Titans could be one of the surprise teams in the NFL after finishing last year so poorly. Their defense surrendered a whopping 37.8 points per game in their last six en route to a 1-5 SU and ATS close to the season. Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher has one of his biggest challenges ahead of him and hopes to turn the defense around. But with the recent acquisition of former Buffalo running back Travis Henry to go along with the addition of offensive coordinator Norm Chow from the defending NCAA champion USC Trojans, this team should definitely score more than anybody in the division but the Colts again. McNair’s health again will likely be the key.

AFC East

Overview: The New England Patriots (17-2 Straight-Up and 13-4-2 Against The Spread) are clearly the class of the NFL right now and will go down as one of the greatest dynasties in league history. However, every champion has to relinquish the crown eventually, and this year’s Patriots will be ripe for the picking after suffering several key losses (see below). Who can step up to dethrone the champs for the division title is highly debatable, but the New York Jets (11-7 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) and Buffalo Bills (9-7 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) seem to be the most likely candidates depending on how their quarterback situations play out.

For the Jets, QB Chad Pennington’s return from injury will be key regardless of the return of wide receiver Laveranues Coles from Washington. In Buffalo, second-year QB J.P. Losman takes over the reigns from Drew Bledsoe (who signed with Dallas) and hopes to breathe new life into the team’s passing attack. Take a flier on the Miami Dolphins (4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS), who will christen Nick Saban’s first season as an NFL head coach by throwing Ricky Williams into the mix at running back with first-round draft pick Ronnie Brown, which will no doubt create some controversy to go along with their annual unsettled mess at QB.  

Most Over-priced: New England Patriots at 5/11 to win division and O/U 11 wins

This team has been able to overcome loads of adversity over the last four years en route to three Super Bowl titles, but the off-season was not kind to the defending champs after losing offensive coordinator Charlie Weis to Notre Dame, defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel to the Cleveland Browns, All-Pro cornerback Ty Law to free agency, starting linebacker Ted Johnson to retirement, and All-Pro linebacker and emotional leader Tedy Bruschi to a stroke. Bruschi is sitting out this season and will be sorely missed by his defensive teammates.

However, the Pats will be as deadly as ever offensively and should have no problems putting points on the board as long as quarterback Tom Brady stays healthy. Home-field advantage could once again be critical to New England’s playoff success, as nobody wants to travel to Foxboro in January, especially the Indianapolis Colts. With four of their first six games on the road against playoff-caliber teams, the Pats will have a tough time going 14-2 again. New England has been one of the best teams ATS each of the last two seasons - going a combined 28-8-2 – and that trend also can’t go on forever.

Most Under-priced: Buffalo Bills at 11/2 to win division and O/U 8.5 wins

Nobody in the AFC wanted the dangerous Bills to get into the playoffs last year after they closed out the 2004 campaign on a 9-3 roll SU and ATS following an 0-4 start. Buffalo blew its regular-season finale at home to Pittsburgh 29-24 despite heading into the game as a massive 9 ½-point favorite. That game signified the young team’s inexperience and also signaled Bledsoe’s departure. The Bills have high expectations for Losman, the team’s first-round pick in 2004 who broke his leg in training camp and saw very little action in relief of Bledsoe. The Bills also brought in proven journeyman QB Kelly Holcomb to back up Losman.

Fortunately for Losman, a bulk of the offensive load will be put on the shoulders of running back Willis McGahee, who stepped up as one of the NFL’s top running backs and paved the way for the Bills to trade former starter Travis Henry to Tennessee. McGahee (1,128 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns) proved his surgically reconstructed knee - which forced him to miss his entire rookie season - could handle an NFL load, passing the test with flying colors. His emergence combined with one of the best defenses and special teams units in the league has Buffalo excited about making the playoffs and improving on their best ATS record in over 10 years.

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