An NCAA Tournament Betting Edge

The public comes to the Big Dance - and those many who never bet a basketball game till March are affecting the way the line is made, because bookmakers must account for their action.  These tourney-only bettors do not have the benefit of following a team throughout the year, so they overreact to the recent results they have seen - backing hot teams and staying away from underperformers.  Here's a listing of results after the first three rounds (Net ATS results = the combined distance from the line)

With all the public action this time of year, teams that are rolling will be over-bet, offering the smart player value going the other way.  Teams who have underperformed will be under-bet, offering value for their backers.  Keep in mind that a team must win to advance, so only big favorites can significantly under-perform.

Ring the cash register in your head!
RJ Bell - rj@fpbe.com

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