Dancing Smart
(Key March Madness handicapping factors)

By RJ Bell – Pregame.com

The NCAA tournament is a entirely different animal – unlike any other college basketball games.  Here are an important set of factors to consider when picking your games to play:

Experience Matters – Consider the experience of both coaches and players.  Experience measured NOT by years coaching or the number of seniors on the roster – the measure should be the number of games played in the tourney. There is nothing like the Big Dance, and if you haven’t been there, the first time is often a difficult learning experience.

Coaching makes even more of a difference – First, players need extra guidance during the high pressure environment that is the Big Dance.  It’s also important to keep in mind that in the tourney teams are often facing teams for the first time – making a coach’s ability to game plan for unfamiliar opponents extra important.  During the regular season a coach faces the same teams multiple times per year, year after year – decreasing the amount of fresh strategy required.  During the tourney almost every game is the first game vs. an opponent that season, and a coach’s ability to deliver effective strategy has a significant effect on his team’s success.

Road Results – Tourney games are road games.  That is a simple yet powerful fact never to forget. Teams that perform poorly on the road will likely perform poorly in the tournament – and vice versa.

Hidden Home Court Advantage – Betting value stems from factors that influence a game’s outcome that are not accounted for in the line. Some teams at certain sites have a home court advantage that’s not obvious at first glance. Consider: 1) The distance from campus to the game site; 2) The size of the team’s fan base and how inclined they are to travel; 3) The other teams playing on the same physical ticket – Do they travel well also?  If so, it’ll be harder for any one team’s fans to get a majority of the tickets.

Easy buckets are even more important – Shooting during the tourney is extra tough. Unfamiliar courts (with foreign rims & difficult backgrounds) combined with elbow shaking pressure put a premium of easy buckets. Easy buckets come from assists and the other team’s turnovers, so look hard at a team’s assist/turnover ratio.  Also highly value a team’s ability to score points in the paint.

Offense Wins Games – We’ve all heard the old adage about defense and championships; but in the Big Dance, due to the factors discussed above, scoring is difficult - meaning that lesser defenses are more difficult to expose and that a strong offense is necessary to overcome the many hindrances to scoring.  Points per game during the regular season is a significant predictor of tournament success.

Ignore Bench Depth - Over the last 5 years, Final Four teams have gotten over 80% of their points from their five starters. Typically teams that go deep into the tourney climb on the back’s of their stars.  Find the stars and get onboard for the ride.

Playing smart means you can play with confidence – allowing March Madness to be all the fun it should be.

Ring the cash register in your head,

RJ Bell
> tell me what you think: rj@pregame.com

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