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Betting The Races Horse racing is a wiseguy favorite, and Rob Crowne knows the wiseguys The 131st running of the Kentucky Derby will take place this Saturday at Churchill Downs racecourse. The Derby itself, and many of the preliminary races on the under-card, will be televised. Nothing is more exciting than watching your horse battle it out down the stretch and win at odds that bettors on two-team sporting events can only dream about. To participate in the excitement you must know how to bet horse races. Under the current pari-mutuel system in use at all tracks in the United States, betting is very different from other sports. Post positions were assigned this past Wednesday, and the “Morning Line” was set. A horse owned by George Steinbrenner, Bellamy Road, was installed as the 5-2 favorite, followed by Afleet Alex at odds of 9-2, Bandini at odds of 6-1, and High Fly at odds of 8-1. The remaining 16 horses in the race start at 12-1 and go up to 50-1. Unlike the opening line on other types of sports, you cannot bet into the “Morning Line.” The odds you actually receive for any Derby bet you make may bear no relationship at all to the posted “Morning Line” odds. In horse racing, the term “Morning Line” is the name given to the odds posted before betting starts. The “Morning Line” is a guideline created by the track’s Racing Secretary to aid the public in assessing each horse’s chance of winning. It represents the opinion of the Racing Secretary as to the odds that each of the horses will win the race. The Racing Secretary is the person at each track who is assigned to making the “Morning Line” odds and setting the weights in what are called handicap races. The degree to which the “Morning Line” odds reflect the Racing Secretary’s opinion as to the actual probability of each horse winning, as opposed to his opinion as to the final odds based on public betting, varies with each track and the individual Racing Secretary. In most cases a little of both goes into the “Morning Line.” Organized racing began in the United States after the Civil War. Originally, it was bookmakers at the tracks who created odds for each race, and took bets based on those odds. In those days, the “Morning Line” was an opening line of odds that were actually used by each bookmaker for betting purposes. These bookmakers were unregulated entrepreneurs. In response to a criminal element that was increasingly taking over betting at U.S. tracks, track owners and trainers banded together to form the Jockey Club. The Jockey Club ruled racing with an iron fist, and bookmakers operating at the tracks became track-sanctioned. When betting at the track was done through bookmakers, the odds you bet at were the odds you got. The odds for your bet didn’t change after you bet. This was the sort of betting you are accustomed to when betting other sports. In 1900, anti-gambling sentiment swept the U.S. Betting was outlawed at most tracks in the country. Racing went into a steep decline. The number of tracks in the United States dwindled from over 300 to just 25. Racing did not make a comeback until pari-mutuel wagering was introduced for the first time in the U.S. The first pari-mutuel wagering system in the U. S. was used at none other than Churchill Downs beginning in 1908. Pari-mutuel wagering has now replaced track-sanctioned bookmakers as the betting method at all racetracks throughout the U.S. Under the pari-mutuel system, the track itself books all bets. Unlike the old-time bookmakers, however, the tracks do not take any risk of loss because they use the pari-mutuel system. The pari-mutuel wagering system was invented in Paris in 1865. It was created by a man named Pierre Oller in response to a request by Paris bookmakers to devise a system of race betting that would allow bookmakers to make a sure profit on every race with no risk of loss. Because it was first used in Paris, the method of bet-taking was called the “Paris Mutuel System.” The word “mutuel” is nothing more than the french word for “mutual.” Paris became “Pari,” which was an anglicized spelling of the French pronunciation of “Paris.” Under the pari-mutuel system, all players are betting against each other rather than the house. Once betting starts, the odds are determined by dividing the pool of all money bet by the amount of money bet on each horse in each betting category – win, place, show, exactas and so on. Before the odds are calculated, the house takes a percentage and taxes are deducted. The total of all deductions from the pool depends on the track and the type of bet. At most tracks the deduction from the win, place and show pools are significantly less than the deductions from the exotic wagering pools for bets such as exactas, daily doubles and triples. The deductions (called the “house take”) from betting pools range from a low of 14% to as high as 26% on some wagers at some tracks. The pool deduction percentages are published in the track program, at the track website, and in the Daily Racing Form newspaper. The “house take” is quite large in racing compared to other forms of betting. It is wise, whenever possible, to bet at those tracks and on those bet types which have the lowest “take.” In casino betting a house take of 14% would be considered horrendous. Making a bet on a game with such a large house edge in a casino would be considered strictly for suckers. The same is not true is horse racing. What makes the casino bet in a game with a 14% “house take” so bad is the fact that the odds on the casino game are fixed. You can never have the advantage. In a casino, the 14% “take” represents a fixed negative expectation for the player that cannot be overcome. The same is not true in racing. In horse racing, the odds are not fixed. You are betting against the public. Consequently, the odds on some horses can be overlays and, therefore, good bets even after the large deductions. A player betting on those overlay horses would have a positive expectation despite the “house take.” Here’s an example of the way pari-mutuel betting works. To make things easy we’ll assume there is a two-horse match race. Rob, an excellent handicapper, calculates that both horses have an equal chance of winning the race. He believes the horses will be battling down the stretch with the winner being decided by a head bob. In the days of the bookmakers, the odds on each horse would probably have been set at Pick’em with the players laying –110 each way. Today, the “Morning Line” may also be set at around even money for each horse. But at the track on race day there is a TV broadcast in which guest handicappers pick the race. On the TV, the guest handicapper says he hasn’t lost a race all day and he is betting the horse named Tails. The fans at the race track, hearing the broadcast, run to the window and bet on Tails. At post time $100,000 has been bet on Tails and only $50,000 has been bet on the other horse, named Heads. If there were no deductions, then the odds on Tails would be calculated by subtracting from the total pool the amount bet on Tails, and then dividing the remaining money by the amount bet on Tails. Doing that calculation gives us odds of 1-2 on Tails. That means that, if Tails wins, those betting on him will win $1 for every $2 they bet. You won’t get rich laying 2-1 odds on a horse that has only a 50-50 chance of winning. In fact, keep that up and you’ll soon be living in the poor house. The win odds on Heads are calculated by subtracting the $50,000 bet on Heads from the $150,000 total pool and then dividing the remaining $100,000 in the pool by the $50,000 bet on Heads. Making this calculation, we get odds of +2-1 on Heads. That means that if Heads wins, all those betting on Heads will win $2 for every $1 they bet. I’ll flip a coin with you and take 2-1 odds whenever heads comes up all day long. The horse named Heads is a big overlay and an excellent bet, even though the actual winner between Heads & Tails cannot be picked with certainty. If I keep betting the 2-1 shot in all such races I’ll soon be rich.. Now let’s assume the track deducts 20% from the pool. The total pool is $150,000 and the track and taxes take out $30,000. The total pool is now $120,000. To calculate the odds on Heads after the deductions, we subtract the $50,000 bet on Heads from the new pool amount of $120,000. We get $70,000. We then divide the $70,000 by the $50,000 bet on Heads. This gives us odds of +1.40 for every $1.00 bet we bet on Heads. Since Heads has a 50-50 chance of winning, anything we get over even money gives us a positive expectation and Heads is still an excellent bet despite the huge 20% house take. It should be noted that the odds on Heads of +1.40 would not be shown that way at most tracks. Bets at U.S. race tracks are traditionally made in $2 increments. A horse which pays $1.40 for every dollar you bet would pay $2.80 for every $2.00. On the odds board this would be rounded up and shown as odds of 3-2, but the payout at the window would still be just $2.80 plus the $2.00 you bet or $4.80. The odds at the tracks are posted on what is called a “Tote Board.” The word “tote” comes from the name of the first manufacturer of the huge electronic calculators that were used to tally the bets and calculate the odds at the race tracks. The company’s name was “American Totalisator,” and the calculators at the track were called Totalisators or tote machines for short. The boards on which the odds calculated by the tote machines were posted became known as tote boards, and the odds themselves, after betting starts, became known at the tote. When you see a link called “Live Tote” at a race track website it means clicking that link will give take you to a page at which live simultaneous betting odds are posted. Thus, the odds before betting starts are called the “Morning Line” and are set by the Racing Secretary, and the odds after betting starts are called the “tote” and are set by the public through their betting. . When you bet under the pari-mutual system, unlike betting other sports with a bookmaker, you do not lock in your odds at the time of your bet. You get whatever odds are calculated when the betting pool becomes final just after the race starts. This is true today whether you bet at the track or you bet with a bookmaker. You can, however, get a fair estimate of what the final pay-out odds will be if you wait until about 10 minutes before the start of the race (called post time) to bet. If you wait longer than that you may get shut out or your offshore book may not count the bet. Many offshore books require all bets to be placed 3 minutes before the time listed by the track as the official start of the race. The reason for the 3-minute rule is that there are frequently differences between the track’s clock and the bookmaker’s clock. These differences can vary anywhere from seconds up to as much as 4 minutes. Be sure to ask the clerk to give you a bet time when betting with an offshore book. Your bet time is usually assigned by the computer when the clerk enters the final bet after you confirm it. Write the bet time down. If the bet time is on or before the time of the race published in the official charts at www.Equibase.com (also published in your local newspaper or the Daily Racing Form) then you have a bet. If the bet time you were given is after the start time in the charts you have NO bet, even if you were watching the TV and you know the race didn’t start until after you bet. The offshore bookmaker rules may seem harsh, but they were necessitated by cheats who use delays in video or audio transmission and inaccuracies in track clocks or in bookmaker clocks to regularly past-post bookmakers. An entire 6-furlong race only takes about 70 seconds to run. If your bookmaker’s clock varies by 30 seconds from the track clock, a person at the track with a cell phone can bet halfway through the race. If the track clock is fast by a mere 45 seconds and the bookmaker’s clock is slow by 45 seconds, the cheats can even bet after the race is over. Watching TV doesn’t help. The bookmaker down in Costa Rica may well have Satellite TV. I have cable. I can call friends with Satellite TV and tell them if a pitch is a ball or a strike while on their set the pitcher is still in the wind up. Just the satellite delay is enough time to know that the favorite has fallen coming out of the gate. Everyone who watches the odds carefully before betting and bets as late as possible has gotten caught with a winner being called a NO BET even though the bet was made before the start of the race by a minute or two. It takes time for some clerks to take a bet and enter it, sometimes the phone isn’t answered immediately, and you can be cut short by as much as 5-6 minutes because of the bookmaker 3 minute rule and the difference in clocks, so be sure to call in your bets no later than 10 minutes before the post time stated by the track on the odds board. An important word of warning. Most bookmakers only check winning bets for time, not all bets. This means that you must check every bet you lose to see if your bet time is before or after the official start time. If the bet time you got from the bookmaker is after the official start time, YOU will have to tell the book not to count the loss. Don’t worry, he’ll be sure to tell you that you have “No Bet” if you win. I’ve saved a few losers by checking all bet times against race starts, even though I believed all my bets were in time. You’d be amazed at how wrong some track clocks or bookmaker clocks can be sometimes. I have experienced official times at tracks to be as much as 5 minutes slow, causing races that started long after I bet them to be officially posted as having started before I bet them. Now that you know how the odds are determined and when to bet, you need to know the various types of bets you can make. Win, Place & Show bets are the racing equivalent of straight betting in other sports. A Win Bet is a bet that the horse you have chosen will win. The odds you see on the tote board are the odds you will receive if your horse comes in first. A Place Bet is a bet that your horse will finish no worse than second. If the horse you pick finishes either first or second in the race you will win the Place bet. The Place Bet normally pays less than the Win Bet because the entire pool is split between two groups – those whose horse finished first and those whose horse finished second. The Show Bet is a bet that your horse will finish no worse than third. If your horse finishes first, second or third in the race you will win the Show Bet. The Show Bet pool is split between three groups of people and normally pays less than the Win or Place Bet on the same horse. There are also bets known as “exotic wagers.” The types of exotic wagers offered differ slightly from track to track, and from race to race at some tracks. There are two types of exotic wagers – multiple race exotics and same race exotics. Here are the most common types of exotic wagers: Multiple Race Exotics Daily Double – The daily double got its name from the fact that several decades ago most tracks offered the bet only once per day. Now some tracks offer a daily double that begins on every race except the last. To win the daily double you must pick the winners of two consecutive races designated by the track. It is similar to a parlay bet in sports, except that the daily double has its own separate pool and therefore the payout to winners can be significantly different from a parlay payout. Pick Three – the Pick Three is the same as the Daily Double except that you must pick the winners of three consecutive races instead of just two. The Pick Three bet is similar to a three horse parlay. Do not confuse the Pick Three with the Triple bet. The Triple bet is a one race bet that we will discuss later. Pick Four – The same as the Pick Three except that you must pick the winners in four consecutive races. The Pick Four is sometimes called the Twin Double. Pick Six - The same as the Pick Three and Pick Four except that the Pick Six requires you to pick the winners of six designated races. Pick Six races are not always consecutive. It is sufficiently difficult to pick the winners in six out of six designated races that there are often just one or two winners at the track. Many days no one wins the Pick 6, and the pool gets carried over to the following day. It is foolish to ever bet more than $2 on each Pick 6 combination you play because betting more than $2 may not get you anything. Let’s assume that the entire pool of Pick 6 bets after deductions is $100,000. If you are the only winner that day, you will collect the entire $100,000 for your $2 bet on the winning combination. If you had bet $10 on the combination instead of $2 the entire pool would now be $100,006 (the $100,000 already in the Pool with your first $2 bet and the extra $8 you bet to make your bet $10 less the 25% deduction usually taken on the Pick 6.). As you can see, betting $2 got you the $100,000 and betting an extra $8 simply got your own $8 back less the track deductions on it. Same-Race Exotics Exacta - The exacta requires you to pick the first and second place finisher in a race in the exact order of their finish. Many people will “box’ an exacta. A two-horse “exacta box” is actually two exacta bets. It is a bet that your two horses will finish in a particular order first and second and then a reverse of that bet with the second exacta putting the first place choice second and the second place choice first. If it costs $2 to make an exacta bet then it will cost $4 to bet the two exactas in a two-horse box. A three-horse exacta box is actually six separate exacta bets with each of the three horses you have chosen being picked for first on top of the other two. If any two of the three horses you have chosen in a three-horse box finish first and second you will win an exacta and get paid. If the minimum bet on each exacta is $2 it will cost you $12 to make the 6 exacta bets represented by a three-horse box. Quinella – the quinella is a bet that the two horses you pick will finish first or second in any order. It is similar to an exacta bet except that you do not need to pick the first two finishers in the race in the exact order of their finish. You will win the quinella no matter which horse finishes first and which finishes second, but they both must be either first or second. Triple or trifecta – The names Triple and Trifecta are used interchangeably. Do not confuse the Triple with the Pick Three. The Pick Three is a multiple race bet. The Triple or Trifecta is a one-race bet. The Triple is like the exacta, except that you must pick the first THREE finishers in the race in the exact order of their finish. Once again, a box is actually several triple bets on the same ticket, and will pay if any of the horses on the ticket finish first, second and third in any order. Superfecta – The Superfecta requires you to pick the first FOUR finishers in the race in the exact order of their finish. At most tracks, the exotics have bigger track “take-outs” than the straight Win, Place and Show bets. Those big deductions from the exotic betting pools make straight Win, Place and Show the bets of choice in most races. There are, however, several reasons for making certain exotic wagers. First, just like with win betting, the pay-out on certain combinations in exotic wagering can be significantly higher than the actual odds of that combination winning, thereby making that combination an overlay despite the amount of the track deduction.. Overlays are most often found when one of the horses in the wager has high win odds. If a horse is an overlay in the Win, Place and Show betting, it is normally an even greater overlay in the exotic wagering. Under such circumstances, the exotic wager can become the bet of choice. Second, the exotic wager may be the only method by which the race is playable. As an example, let’s assume there are two horses in a race that have an equal chance of winning. You cannot decide between them which one will win, but they are both much better than the rest of the horses in the race. The best way to bet those two horses may be in an exacta or quinella, or by placing them both on top in Daily Double or Pick Three combinations. Let’s assume the odds on each horse are even money. You cannot profitably bet both horses to win. Betting both to place requires that both horses finish either first or second if you are to win net money, but the win potential will likely be as little as .40 cents for every $4 bet. If the two horses are bet in a quinella or boxed in an exacta they still must both finish in the top two spots for you to win, just as with betting them both to place, but when you win, your profit is likely to be around $8 for every $4 bet., and not a mere 40 cents. In such case the quinella or exacta is the best way to bet. Last, in some races there may be one horse that is much better than the rest. Let’s say that one horse in the race is going off at odds of 1-10 and is a huge, prohibitive favorite. Such a horse is often an underlay and cannot be bet to Win. Knowing that a particular horse in the race has a high probability of winning, however, or that a particular horse has a very high probability of finishing “in the money” (1st, 2nd, or 3rd ), can cut down the odds against winning the exotic bets immensely. That reduction in odds can make the exotics the bets of choice in some races. For example, in a 10 horse race there are 90 possible exacta results. The odds against winning an exacta are, therefore, 89-1 if you simply pick two horses with darts thrown at the program. If, however, there is one horse in the race with an 80% chance of winning, then the odds against winning an exacta are reduced from 90-1 down to just 10-1 simply by placing that horse on top to win. Carefully choosing the horses to play in the second position can greatly increase the value of the big favorite winning the race. The same is true if the big favorite is placed on top in any of the exotics. Now that you know how the betting works, when to bet, and the types of bets, the only remaining question is which horses to bet. The opponent in race-betting is the public, not a professional bookmaker. That situation gives the insiders and the experts a huge edge. The members of the professional betting group we follow, the Wall Street Syndicate, are both experts and insiders. Their results in horse racing have been nothing short of spectacular. Their overall win percentage exceeds 50% with average odds of greater than 3-1. Race betting is a zero-sum game. The experts and insiders win big because the public loses big. It is easy to know what the public is betting in horse racing. The public choice is the post-time favorite. As an indication of how little those folks at all those Kentucky Derby parties know when it comes to sending their money in at all the legal off-track betting operations in the U.S., the public choice has won the Derby only twice in the past 10 years. The favorite finished 2nd only twice and 3rd only twice. In 40% of the races the public choice ran completely out of the money. When the public sends it in on the wrong horse, that increases the odds immensely on the right horses. The average Kentucky Derby exacta pay-out over the past 10 years has been an unbelievable $438 for a $2 bet. That sort of payout is unheard of at other times when the professionals and insiders dominate the betting at the track. Over the past 10 years a $2 bet on the winning exacta produced only one pay-out below $60. There were 5 exactas (50%) that paid in excess of $290 for a $2 bet, with two paying $1300 and $1229. It’s no different than pitting the best pros against once-a-year poker players at a Poker table. The squares have been getting killed on Derby Day while the pros have been cleaning up. What would you give to be able to bet with the best race handicappers and most knowledgeable insiders in the world against the know-nothing tourists and once-a-year players who dominate the betting on Derby Day? A mere $49 is ridiculously cheap for the privilege of having your money ride with the pros. You can find out which horses the syndicate will be betting at Churchill Downs by getting on board with the Crowne Club for racing on Derby Day. The first race goes to post at 11A.M. EDT. You must sign up today. We will not be taking sign ups on Derby Day. It’s only $49 for the entire day of racing. To get details send an email to: derby@fpbe.com That wraps it up for Betting The Races . . . Click Here to see how easy it is to bet on the biggest horse race of the year. * You can tell friends about this interesting info by simply emailing them this link http://freepicksbyemail.com/news17.htm * If you are not yet a FPBE list-member (or you are but have an alternate email address that's sometimes better for you) - You can be added to our FPBE list quick & free. Other Related Articles |