Kentucky Derby
Winning Betting Strategy
exclusively for Pregame.com by Tripp Wright
The Run for the Roses is Saturday…now, the question is, how are you going to capitalize? Let's look at a number of strategies that give us the best chance to win . . ..
Concept #1: Forget the parimutuel betting, and play the props.
Here in Vegas, there’s lots of prop betting options to be had. But online, there’s a whole new set. I checked out the offerings at Pinnacle Sportsbook, and they’ve got a few worth playing. The steals:
#323, Buzzards Bay over Coin Silver.
As I expressed in the first part of this series, Coin Silver is quite possibly the worst horse in the field. Why anyone would want to risk their money on a horse that has won precisely $31,050 on a dry track is beyond me. This is a horse that lost ground in the stretch in a first-level allowance in his last start on dry dirt. Buzzards Bay isn’t a world-beater, but at +164, he’s a nice alternative way to take a shot. (You can only bet the Brewers so many times.)
#333, Bandini vs. Flower Alley and Coin Silver.
Look, it’s the good Pletcher horses versus the lousy Pletcher horses! Bandini is -180, which means you’re basically taking -180 that his leg doesn’t break, or a shoe doesn’t fall off. I am not a player of -180 shots on a regular basis…but this time, I’ll make an exception.
#221, Greeley’s Galaxy to win (must start).
We’ll focus more on the horse later…but I don’t think you’ll see him at 22-1 on Derby Day. This horse is the hot one to bet right now, and his 15-1 morning line might actually come down, thanks to a good post position.
#606, Winning margin UNDER 5 ¼ lengths.
Last horse to win by 5 ¼? Spend A Buck, 1985. Last horse to win by MORE? How about 1946 Triple Crown winner, Assault, who won by 8? (Oddly enough, Hoop Jr. won by 6 in 1945. Ante up the -362, and win some money.
MY TICKETS:
#323, $300 to win $492
#333, $540 to win $300
#221, $100 to win $2200
#606, $10,860 to win $3000
Click Here to see more ways you can bet the Derby.
Concept #2: Just win, baby.
Of all the ways to play, this one makes the least sense to me. So much can go wrong…why not spread your money around and box an exacta or trifecta? IF you must play to win, for whatever reason…there are only two colts that have any value whatsoever on the morning line.
In the Derby, the favorite is rarely the favorite after the race. In the last ten years, only Smarty Jones and Fusaichi Pegasus have won as favorites. You’re telling me that Bellamy Road still sounds good, even though he’ll most likely go off 8-5 or 9-5? Toss him. Same goes for Afleet Alex at his current 9-2...he’d have value above 7-1, but 9-2 is too short of a price for a horse with some health questions.
The two playable win bets: Bandini (6-1) and Greeley’s Galaxy (15-1 ML, 22-1 at Pinnacle). Bandini closed over Keeneland’s notoriously speed-favoring track, and Greeley’s Galaxy is The It Horse right now, with good reason.
MY TICKETS: None
Concept #3: Show me the money.
Some people claim show betting is the way to go…the least risk. (Also, the least reward.) Some people say show betting’s like kissing your sister. Me, I’ve always said show betting is like kissing your brother…it won’t make you happy, and you ought to be ashamed of yourself.
MY TICKETS: Not in this lifetime
Concept #4: Exactas.
The exacta! Now, there’s a nice honorable bet. Just remember to follow some rules.
- When the favorite does not deserve his odds, use him ONLY in savers. No need to take a risk of a subpar payout just because "Well, he’s the favorite"…so we’ll toss Bellamy Road, except for a saver ticket or two.
- Identify a ridiculous longshot. Look at all the horses 30-1 or higher, find one that you like, and use him. If he hit’s the top two spots, you’ll look brilliant, and if THAT doesn’t bring in the ladies, you’ll have a ton of money to help you along.
- Use a main box ticket, and multiple saver keys. Use the horses you like the most, and box them. This is a reasonably priced bet, and as long as you keep it to five or so, you’ll recoup your bet, even if the two shortest prices come in.
MY TICKETS:
$5 exacta box: Afleet Alex, Greeley’s Galaxy, Sun King, Greater Good, Bandini. ($100 total)
$10 exacta key: Bellamy Road with Afleet Alex, Bandini ($20)
$5 exacta key: Bellamy Road with Greeley’s Galaxy, Sun King, Greater Good ($15)
$4 exactly part-wheel: Afleet Alex, Greeley’s Galaxy, Sun King, Greater Good, Bandini with Bellamy Road ($20).
There’s $155 worth of exactas…not too bad.
Concept #5: Tri for the big one.
Derby trifectas are known for paying silly, silly amounts of money. Last year, the return was nearly $1000 on a $2 bet, and that was with the favorite winning, third choice running second, and a top-five choice in third. If you can afford it, box as many horses as you feel you need. Back it up with keys on shorter prices, and narrow some positions.
MY TICKETS:
$2 trifecta box: Sun King, Greater Good, Greeley’s Galaxy, High Fly, Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road, Bandini. ($420)
$2 trifecta key: Afleet Alex with Sun King, Greater Good, Greeley’s Galaxy, High Fly, Bellamy Road, Bandini with all ($216)
$2 trifecta key: Sun King, Greater Good, Greeley’s Galaxy, High Fly, Bellamy Road, Bandini with Afleet Alex with all ($216)
This way, if we hit the exacta…one of our horses will run third and give us a $4 tri ($2000 by last year’s chalky standards), or a longshot will run third with Alex in the top two spots and give us a monster payout.
Concept #6: Superfecta (no clever title).
Last year, a well-known official said "Whoever hits this year’s trifecta can buy a new car, and whoever hits the superfecta can buy a new house." He was wrong, but that was in a field peppered with favorites. The superfecta is hittable, IF you have a ridiculous budget and are still lucky. I’m going to take a couple of flyers, but it’s not where I’m looking to get rich.
MY TICKETS:
$1 super key: Afleet Alex with Sun King, Greeley’s Galaxy, and Bandini with Sun King, Greeley’s Galaxy, and Bandini with all ($102).
$1 super key: Afleet Alex with Sun King, Greeley’s Galaxy, and Bandini with all with Sun King, Greeley’s Galaxy, and Bandini ($102).
That’s my $2152 betting plan (not counting the 5 ¼ length prop, which in theory should pay for it all anyways). Obviously, you can tone it down to suit your needs…but these horses are there because they have a chance, and they figure. Is it beatable? Sure. Should it get beaten? Probably not.
After the Derby, I’ll preview the Preakness, along with recapping my Derby experience. Until then, stay sharp, and enjoy the pageantry of The Greatest Two Minutes In Sports.
That wraps it up for my Betting Strategy - Tripp Wright for Pregame.com
Click Here to see how easy it is to bet on the biggest horse race of the year.
Kentucky Derby Part 1 - The Contenders
Betting the Races by Rob Crowne
Horse racing is a wiseguy favorite, and Rob Crowne knows the wiseguys better than anyone. FPBE is exclusively offering Rob Crowne's entire Kentucky Derby card, picks on all races including the big one, for the bargain rate of $49. Simply email derby@fpbe.com and I'll reply with details on how easy it is to play with the smart money this Saturday.
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