By RJ Bell
President, Pregame.com

Long before tip-off on Thursday comes, you'll probably be filling in your brackets for dozens of office pools and good-natured bets among friends. Office pool success is typically decided by two types of predictions: 1) Picking teams that will go deep into the tournament and 2) Picking a healthy amount of upsets in the early rounds.

Every #1 seed always offers some appealing qualities, but you're not going to win your pool without scoring with some upsets. What's interesting here is if we look at what #1 seeds have done in recent tournaments. All stats used in this analysis are for the 20-year period since 1985 when the Big Dance became a 64-team tournament.

Number of #1 seeds making the Final Four in a given year:
4: zero times
3: three times
2: nine times
1: eight times
0: zero times

Never have all four number one seeds made the Final Four, but never have there been no number one seeds in the semi-finals either - always one or two number one seeds made it into the Final Four in 17 of the last 20 years! Considering that picking upsets wins bracket pools, the numbers advise advancing only one #1 seed to the semi-finals.

Which one to pick though? Key fact to consider: Of the 80 Final Four teams in our sample, only 26 did not meet ALL of the following conditions:
+ Made tourney the prior year
+ Had a preseason AP All-American
+ Beat opponents by an average of 10+ points a game.
+ Got at least 30% of scoring from their front court (forwards and centers)

Stunningly, only 4 of those 26 teams that failed to meet ALL the above conditions made the Final Four! 30 of 54 teams who did meet those conditions did make the Final Four!

But don't count on #1 seeds falling easily. In the past 20 years, #1 seeds are:

- 80-0 in the 1st round
- 68-12 (85%) in making it to the Sweet 16.
- 56-12 (70%) in making it to the Elite 8

#1 seeds are only 20-19 to win that next game to reach the Final Four when playing a #2 or #3 seeds. When playing any other seed lower than 3 in the Elite 8 round, the #1 seeds have won 14 of 17 games to reach the Final Four.

Of the 222 times top seeds have played #5 seeds or lower, those lower seeds have won only 21 times (that's over 90% winners for the #1s)

Which leads to a key point - seemingly upset worthy #8 and #9 seeds inevitably must face a #1 in the 2nd round, severely decreasing the likelihood of advancing to even the 3rd round.

#2 seeds are 76-4 in the 1st round; but #2 seeds are only 16-13 in the 2nd round vs. #10 seeds.

#3 seeds are 67-13 in the 1st round - but less than 50% make it to the 3rd round!

#4 seeds are 64-16 in the 1st round - but less than 50% make it to the 3rd round!

Seeds #13 or worse win less than 14% of games played, making them extreme long shot picks to win even a single game.

Which leaves 10, 11, and 12 seeds as prime Cinderella candidates - when they win in round 1, these teams are a surprising 39-43 to win in the 2nd round and move on to the Sweet 16.

The Elite 8 is where the big upsets usually end. 26 times in this round big underdogs (defined by being 4 or more seeds worse) have faced favorites, winning only 4 times.

Seeds of 80 Final Fours teams of the last 20 years:
#1: 34
#2: 18
#3: 11
#4: 7
#5: 3
#6: 3
#8: 3
#1: 1

Only once has a lower than #8 made the Final Four!

Of the last 20 champions, 11 were #1 seeds.

Don't believe the myth that the Mid-Major conferences are closing the gap with the big boys - in the last 5 years, these conferences have...
+ sent less teams to the dance
+ with a lower average seed
+ won a lower percentage of games

...than in ANY other 5 year period of the last 20 years.

Hopefully you'll use this information to pick a bracket that makes you the envy of the other entries in your local office pool. When you're putting your bracket together, make sure you keep in mind the following game factors when picking winners:
- Coach's and players' experience in the Big Dance.
- How the team did on the road during the season.
- Home court fan advantage for certain teams in certain rounds.
- Ignore bench depth - over the last 5 years Final Four teams have gotten over 80% of their points from their five starters.

Specific handicapping factors for NCAA Tourney game will be examined in full detail in my next article coming on Wednesday in the FreePicksByEmail newsletter. . . As will our list of over-performing and under-performing coaches . . .

Ring the cash register in your head,

rj@fpbe.com

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