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Sunday, February 05, 2006
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Dr. Bob Sports |
| Today's Pick: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS |
NFL
Seattle vs. Pittsburgh
6:30 EST
The pointspread in the Super Bowl is determined by public perception more than a normal NFL game because more amateur money is going to be placed on this game than on any other game all season. The public deemed Pittsburgh’s playoff road wins at Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Denver as more impressive than Seattle’s two home wins over Washington and Carolina and thus Pittsburgh is an undeserving 4 point favorite in this game instead of the 2 or 2 ½ point favorite that they should be. I don’t want to diminish Pittsburgh’s playoff accomplishments, as beating the Colts and Broncos on the road is truly a great achievement, but two games is an awfully small sample size and the Steelers simply aren’t much better than Seattle when you look at each team over the course of the season (and even in the playoffs only). Seattle is getting criticized for playing an easier schedule than the Steelers and that is absolutely true, but my math model compensates each team’s statistics for the level of the opponents that they faced and those compensated numbers are pretty close. Seattle’s offense was one of the very best in the NFL this season, as their balanced attack would averag 5.79 yards per play against an average NFL defense. That number was derived by compensating Seattle’s offensive numbers by the defensive numbers of their opponents (and the level of their opponent’s opponents) while excluding games against the Colts in week 16 (Indy didn’t play their starters) and against Green Bay in week 17 (Seattle rested many of their starters). Seattle’s compensated yards per rush is 4.70 ypr and quarterback Matt Hasselback’s compensated yards per pass play (including sacks) is 6.91 yppp. The league average for yards per play is 5.13 yppl (I take kneel downs and quarterback spikes out of my stats, which is why that number is different from the official stats you may see), so Seattle’s offense is 0.66 yppl better than average. Pittsburgh’s defense would allow 3.66 ypr, 5.35 yppp, and 4.60 yppl to an average offensive team and a team’s compensated defensive numbers are adjusted depending on opposing quarterbacks faced. For instance, my ratings adjust for facing backup Jon Kitna for all but 2 plays in the Steelers’ first playoff game against Cincinnati instead of facing All-Pro Carson Palmer. Pittsburgh’s defense is 0.53 yppl better than average, so the Seahawks’ attack has a slim 0.13 yppl advantage against Pittsburgh’s defense. Seattle has proven themselves against good defensive teams, averaging 5.5 yppl in games against Jacksonville, Washington twice, and Carolina – the 4 games that they played against teams that allowed less than 5.0 yppl for the season (Green Bay also allowed less than 5.0 yppl, but Seattle sat their starters in that game). Those teams would combine to allow 4.8 yppl to an average attack, so the Seahawks were 0.7 yppl better than average against good defensive teams, which is the same that they were overall this season.
Pittsburgh’s offense was without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in 4 games this season (weeks 6, 9, 10, and 11), and the Steelers’ attack with Roethlisberger would average 5.67 yppl against an average NFL defense. The rushing attack is a bit below average (4.01 ypr compensated; NFL average is 4.13 ypr when you exclude kneel downs as I do in each game), but Roethlisberger averaged an impressive 7.90 yppp this season and would average 7.81 yppp against an average defensive team. Seattle is better defensively than most people think, as the Seahawks would allow just 3.76 ypr, 5.64 yppp, and 4.81 yppl to an average NFL team, which isn’t much worse than Pittsburgh’s compensated defensive numbers. The Steelers are 0.54 yppl better than average offensively and Seattle is 0.32 yppl better than average defensively, so Pittsburgh has a 0.22 yppl advantage when they have the ball. Pittsburgh faced 4 better than average defensive teams with Roethlisberger at quarterback (New England in week 3 when the Pats had their secondary intact, San Diego, Baltimore, and Chicago) and the Steelers averaged 5.1 yppl in those 4 games against teams that would allow 4.7 yppl to an average team, so Pittsburgh wasn’t quite as good offensively against good defensive teams as they were overall. Take Seattle.
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About
the Author:
A Cal Berkeley graduate specializing in Statistics, Dr. Bob has developed a unique method of combining situational analysis, fundamental indicators, and game valuation models which consistently generate profitable results, including a 62% record in CFB Best Bets.
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